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Exemptions

Posted by Iain on Dec. 17, 2021, 11:48 a.m. in New Zealand Politics

This is my last post (can you hear the lone bugler?) and while I was going to finish on an esoteric note there’s been a few indications these past two weeks of where the visa process might be heading in New Zealand, at least in the short term, that will make for interesting reading.

You may recall Government announced that there are three stages to the plan to re-open the international border in 2022:

1. From January 17 those of us stuck in Australia can return home and isolate for seven days at home. This includes ‘other eligible travellers’ living in Australia (Australian citizens, Australian PR holders) and any NZ Critical Purpose Visitor Visa holders living in Australia. Non NZ citizens must be full vaccinated.

2. From mid February New Zealanders from everywhere else (as in, not Australia) can head home. The Government (only under pressure through a question being put to the Minister in Parliament last week) also confirmed that anyone holding a Critical Purpose Visitor Visa (meaning in part those with jobs in NZ to take up) can also travel if fully vaccinated.

3. From April 22 it seemed initially that everyone else would be able to travel under the ‘other eligible travellers’ group but the government has (still) not advised who those people are. Could it be general tourists or people coming to find work? That was the impression given but why Government hasn’t offered any public definition of exactly who is covered from that date escapes me - unless of course they made the announcement first and are working through the details second - something they have become very good at doing in recent times. We have a Minister of Tourism advising we won’t be having general tourism till 2023 but where it might leave international students, people coming to find jobs etc, we do not  yet know.

At last it seems the fog may be lifting on the border but it would be really helpful if the Government actually provided definitions and criteria when it released policy so we know what criteria will apply to whom.

It is however still good news. For those of you that are working on moving to New Zealand during 2022 and need job offers to make it happen it looks like you will be good to go by mid year. Covid variants and Government not getting cold feet willing of course… 

On that last point the New Zealand Government continues to send mixed messages that is confusing the heck out of people and making the lives of those of us who need to get to New Zealand more complicated. Although last week the Minister for Covid Response confirmed there’d be no ‘walking back’ of these dates last week, earlier this week the Prime Minister, once again, came out and contradicted him. She said, as she tends to do, that while she is hoping the government can stick to these dates, she adds the qualifier it’s subject to ‘Omicron’ and any other good reason not to. Not helpful when the government is following a suppression policy and has dumped ‘elimination’. 

She blindsided Air New Zealand with this comment - as far as management of the national airline were aware it’s full steam ahead on re-opening rom 17 January. Imagine trying to run an airline with messaging like this.

And sowing any doubt leaves people like me, still sitting in Queensland (very happily) who are booked to fly home on 18 January (with a house to pack up and vacate in Auckland by 27 January) suddenly feeling awfully nervous again that she will back flip.

I am confident however the political pressure on her was, and remains, so great to get on with re-opening and truly living with this virus now that over 90% of those aged over 12 have chosen to be vaccinated, that she wouldn’t dare not. Famous last words? I hope not. 

It also appears that the Government intends to very tightly control the flow of in demand skills and labour into New Zealand at least over the short term. Hardly a day goes by when there isn’t another story about this occupation or that occupation being given a certain number of visas available to those that want to hire offshore. 

The latest is Auditors (180 work visas available). Earlier this week it was IT professionals with 600 places. It looks like the Seafood Industry is about to get its own annual quota. We had visas announced for 300 Teachers announced earlier in the year. We have Heavy Equipment (farm) operators with a quota. Once again Halal slaughtermen are going to be allowed in but that is a really good example of how seemingly random this all is becoming - the industry wanted 45. The Government gave them 15. Even 45 in the scheme of things for an industry that employs thousands but which requires these skills to get meat into some critical export markets worth hundreds of millions of dollars seems if not petty, then ludicrous. In response the Meat Industry Association head called the Government out for being ‘tone deaf’ (and I couldn’t agree more).

I confess to some real concerns over this micro management and an introduction of what appears to be occupational quotas. That they seem to always be significantly lower than what industry says it needs to keep functioning is troubling. How this might feed into residence policy is anyone’s guess bearing in mind Government has said they intend resuming invitation to apply for residence in July 2022.

It strikes me as odd that Government decided for example to let in 600 IT workers when vacancies in the sector is currently running at 6000. Or 300 Teachers when we know we are 1000 short for 2022.

What is to be gained I know not. Except control. Tight control. 

I appreciate in the migrant ‘space’ (as they like to call it) the government does not want to return to the numbers that we had previously on temporary work visas when over 5% of the workforce were on temporary visas meaning over 250,000 people in the country on work visas with many many chasing 25,000 residence places a year. 

Equally IT exports are booming and expanding yet the government is denying it the capacity to maximise the opportunity.

And try explaining to 700 sets of parents that by only allowing in 300 teachers in the next short while their children will not have a Teacher standing up in front of them in six weeks time.

Madness on a grand scale.

I am hoping that what we are seeing is simply a response to limited places in the government Managed Isolation and Quarantine system - even though it is several thousand rooms each week - and not a move to start micro managing how many programmers or teachers or engineers are allowed to cross the border.

It seems ironic that just as the Australian Government is looking at dumping these occupational quotas (because they are artificial and dumb) and potentially moving toward a more NZ style of letting the labour market decide what skills are needed through forcing skilled migrants to secure skilled jobs, New Zealand is looking like adopting the Australian occupational quota model. 

We are to some extent once again left wondering what the future really holds. 

And speaking of summer holidays, IMMagine will be closed from mid day on 23 December and will fully re-open on 17 January. A skeleton staff will be back on deck on 10 January however.

We have all survived what is likely to be the craziest year in our lifetimes. The IMMagine team has done an amazing job looking after incredibly stressed clients during another years of upheaval and uncertainty and I want to publicly acknowledge their efforts. They are a great group of people. They now deserve a good break to refresh and recharge for the challenges of 2022, whatever they might be. 

I remain quietly confident that 2022 will be better for anyone planning on migrating to NZ or Australia and you will be able to start planning with far greater certainty of timelines, even if the Prime Minister continues to send mixed messages. 

Until next year

Iain MacLeod

Southern Man


Fortune favors the bold…

Posted by Paul on Nov. 5, 2021, 10:03 a.m. in New Zealand Politics

There is no doubt that the last five weeks in New Zealand has been a pretty busy and very interesting time in the immigration space..

Just over a month ago, the Minister announced what is probably the biggest and most generous Visa plan, in living memory – a plan to give virtually everyone in New Zealand on a Work Visa the ability to secure Residence. There were are a few categories of people who didn’t make the cut but with the projected number of 165,000 being eligible, there weren’t many people left out in the cold.

Following that we have seen the Government facing up to the reality that our current border system doesn’t work and whilst we haven’t lifted the lid entirely, there are clear signs and calls for it to be changed. MIQ stays will very soon become shorter, more countries will be added to the list that can dodge MIQ entirely and there is an appetite now for people who arrive here fully vaccinated to eventually be able to camp out at home instead of in a Government run facility.

On the periphery of all of that but directly linked to it, is yesterday’s announcement that our unemployment level has plummeted to 3.4% which is half a percent lower than pre-pandemic levels and a number not seen for many years. Whilst unemployment has been falling, the number of new jobs continues to increase with recent additions hitting 54,000. The obvious question now is who will do the jobs that we are creating and it is a question that is placing an enormous amount of pressure on our current political leaders (I use the word ‘leaders’ loosely).

You might be wondering, particularly if you are offshore and yet to start the process, what all of this means for you. Well, it means, potentially very good things.

In terms of the newly minted 2021 Resident Visa category, which hit the headlines at the end of September and has now been formalized within the rules, there is a somewhat hidden but very real opportunity for some of you outside of New Zealand keen to make a life new here. Whilst the new Resident Visa option was primarily targeted at those onshore who hold existing Work Visas and meet certain skill, scarcity or settlement criteria, there is also an opportunity for certain skilled individuals to get here before July 2022 and take advantage of this new pathway as well.

The Critical Purpose Visa process was set up to allow specific occupations (namely healthcare) to be able to secure Visas and border exemptions despite the current pause for offshore Visa processing. It involves two steps and requires an offer of employment that meets the definition of “critical” as well as the applicant being suitably qualified to undertake the work, which might include, as an example, being registered to work as a nurse.

For anyone who works in particular healthcare roles (and the list is fairly broad) who is able to secure an offer of employment in New Zealand and arrive here on a Critical Purpose Visa before July 2022, they will also have the opportunity to apply for Residence under this new category.

Considering there is no points test under this new category, nor any need for English, very low medical criteria and crucially no age cap, this could provide some of you with an opportunity to make the move that otherwise wouldn’t exist. Let me repeat that in case it didn’t sink in – no points, no English and no limit on age.

You do have to meet certain criteria in regards to the role you secure, so it isn’t for one and all, but if you work in healthcare (and can become registered here, if that is required for your profession) then there is a good chance you might qualify.

If you combine that with the fact that unemployment is now at levels not seen for 14 years and most of our health industry is falling over itself to find more staff, then with the right strategy and approach, this limited time offer might be the best chance you have of getting in to New Zealand. This also means that the 60-year-old, qualified and registered Nurse who would ordinarily not be able to migrate to New Zealand, now potentially can.

There are also other critical workers that can consider this option, although the list of those and the criteria is a lot more limited, so really this advantages those in healthcare over pretty much every one else.

However, if you aren’t a Nurse or Psychologist and perhaps you’re better with numbers or computers or car engines, the events of the last few months should give you a good reason to be encouraged as well.

There is no doubt that New Zealand has approached the latter stages of this pandemic by retreating in to its shell and that has seen borders remaining closed for far longer than necessary, which we suspect has cooled interest in those looking to make the move.

However, there are strong signals that not even this overly cautious Government can ignore and a plummeting unemployment number, rising job vacancy numbers and employers screaming out for skilled labour on a daily basis are amongst the strongest. Low unemployment is a good economic indicator for a strong economy, until it isn’t. When you reach the levels New Zealand has, the negative impacts start to surface – businesses can’t grow, they can’t fulfil future work, projects start to grind to a halt and costs go up (everywhere).

Myself and my colleagues have no doubt that over the next few months the pressures that have come to bear on the Government will be too immense for them to ignore. That should (and we believe will) lead to further revisions of border settings, to allow a greater number of people in to fill those skill gaps.

Only last week, it was pointed out on multiple occasions that there is a painful irony in the fact that someone in NZ who has Covid can isolate at home, yet a New Zealander or skilled worker stuck offshore who has been fully vaccinated and tests negative has to take their chances with the MIQ lottery.

Our friends across the ditch have also lead the way and one might say caused a little bit of embarrassment here. Australia with lower numbers of people fully vaccinated than New Zealand has is opening up to the rest of the world, with international flights arriving in to the country as early as yesterday. They also have a strong desire to restart their migration engines, appreciating that migrants bring various and very significant contributions – all of which will be vital in the post pandemic world.

The cracks in all of New Zealand’s precautionary Covid measures that may have been necessary a year or 18 months ago are now big enough you could fly a 747 full of migrants through them – A 747 that might be bound for Australia who are pulling out ahead of New Zealand and I am confident we will want to catch up.

For those of you who work in healthcare and are qualified and able to sell your skills to an eager employer here, there has never been a better time to try. With the new 2021 Resident Visa offering a simplified pathway to stay here permanently and a desperate need for your skills as our economy keeps pushing back, you would be mad not to explore it. Of course you need to make sure you meet the various requirements to secure the initial Visa to get here and run the gauntlet in terms of the border and MIQ but with any luck that process will become easier as the months pass.

For the rest of you who may not meet the very generous requirements under this new (and it is a one-off) category or who don’t work in healthcare, fear not – every day, week and month we move closer to being able to bring you here. It’s a message we think needs to be reinforced, New Zealand is not closed to migrants and if today’s numbers are anything to go by, our need to open up and let people in who can bring the skills we desperately need is becoming even more apparent.

To find out more and particularly if you think you could be one of those eligible to fall within the new 2021 Visa pathway, get in touch. Fortune favors the bold and there is no better time than now to be a bold migrant.


And the winner is... virtually everybody!

Posted by Iain on Oct. 1, 2021, 10:29 a.m. in New Zealand Politics

 

In a blog a few weeks ago (read here) I explained how I would solve the current crisis sinking the government’s skilled migrant programme caused by multi year processing backlogs. Working quite closely with the National Party spokeswoman on Immigration, Erica Stanford and one or two others from the immigration consulting community in recent weeks, I was rather hoping the policy released by the Nats would be stolen by the current government as a solution to the problem it created.

Earlier this week I seem to have got my wish.

The Government has announced a pathway to residency for people in New Zealand who are working as of 29 September with fairly generous terms. Although it's not going to cover everybody in the country it is going to cover the significant majority who have been stuck in, or who have stuck by, New Zealand during the Covid crisis.

The government clearly, if belatedly, appreciated that without radical surgery the patient was going to die. To nurse the system back to health and clear the backlogs would take years. They could not hope to roll out their so called ‘reset’ until they dealt with this problem. I think they also became tired of waking up every morning to new nightmarish migrant stories in the media and they wanted to get in front of an issue that has been starting to hurt them politically.

In what could be described as a ‘big bang’ solution they have announced a pathway to residency for all virtually everyone who was in New Zealand and employed on 29 September 2021. As always the devil is going to be in the detail but one thing is very clear to me – the government is expecting to grant around 165,000 resident visas over the next 12 months or so (by the end of 2022). That can only mean one thing – the application process is going to be what we are referring to as ‘tick and flick’.

So who is likely to qualify?

All of those who hold an Essential Skills Work Visa, work to residence (Talent or long-term skills shortage list), post study work visa and who:

         Has been in New Zealand for three years or

         Earns more than $27 per hour; or

         Who work in an occupation that meets the criteria for the long-term skills shortage list; or

         Who work in a health or education occupation in New Zealand that requires local statutory registration; or

         Personal care workers (I'm assuming this is referring to Nursing Assistants and Nurse Aids and similar) and ‘other critical workers’ or

         Workers in primary industries – clearly designed to cover all those working on farms that may not have jobs that are skilled enough to be granted residence in the normal way

It's basically everybody employed on 29 September. Those that might not qualify will likely have been the in the country for less than three years and earning less than $27 per hour. It is curious that criteria has been added. This smacks to me of a last minute addition to keep the ‘anti-immigrant, you’re flooding the country with cheap labour, Kiwis can fill these jobs’ brigade happy. They do exist despite the evidence the are wrong. 

Only one family member needs to hold the Work Visa if there is a partner and children. 

Government intends prioritising, from 1 December, those people who have filed a (new if necessary) residency application and who have "adult" but dependent children aged under 25 included in their application. This covers those who have children age 17 or older.

Everyone else waits it seems till March 2022.

Disappointingly but perhaps predictably the government has not at this point signaled any priority for the "split families" where the primary applicant is in New Zealand but their partner and children remain offshore. Given the demand for managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) hotel rooms it was always likely the government was going to only be able to offer ‘certainty’ of residence to that family on the one hand but tell them they going to be separated for a long time yet on the other. I am hopeful MIQ won’t be necessary for many people by early 2022.

I think it's also clear that this signals government is expecting to open the border early in 2022. They need to clear the decks now so that Immigration New Zealand is positioned, certainly by the middle of 2022, to roll out whatever the new skilled immigration policy is going to look like. I also wrote a piece on that a few weeks ago on what the new policy might look like and you can read that here. I predict a higher pass mark of perhaps 180 (up from 160) and a change to the points system rewarding those people in New Zealand with more points if they work in occupations requiring statutory registration, work in an occupation on the long-term skills shortage list and, possibly, those earning one and a half times the median income around $84,000.

While this week’s announcement is great news for everybody seeking certainty I think this should be recognised for what it truly is – not a government being kind to migrants – but a government realising the immigration system is so utterly broken the only way forward is to basically burn it to the ground and start again.  The good news is they didn't leave the migrants in the house after they lit the match and I will give them credit for that because they've gone further than I expected they would.

In doing so they've been able to take the great ideas of the National Party spokeswoman who has been ratcheting up the pressure on a fairly useless Minister and disinterested administration for over 12 months. A lot of the credit for the government’s announcement should ironically go to Erica Stanford, not the Prime Minister and not the Minister himself.

The government has confirmed that they will not be selecting any EOIs from the skilled migrant pool until July 2022. What is not yet clear is whether people can still file them in the meantime but hopefully will get more detail on that shortly.

By July 2022 I expect that the government should have been able to significantly eat into the current backlog.

Government has been quick to reassure the world that New Zealand is not closing its doors but the opposite. It will, for reasons of political expediency, burble on about ‘up skilling and training New Zealanders as a priority’ for the local political audience. The reality in the labour market is this decision does not in any way diminish the acute and worsening skill shortages in an economy that continues to perform strongly. All the people that are now going to be given a pathway to residency are already in New Zealand and filling jobs we cannot. We need people to fill the jobs being created today, tomorrow and next week - or which have been unfilled since we closed the border in March 2020.

All this action does is allow those people who have been in New Zealand and contributing to remain and to offer them certainty they not going to be thrown out of the country. With every month at the border remains closed the skill shortages get worse. That tells me the future for skilled migration to New Zealand remains positive and if you are wanting to join us, viable. Unless and until we produce the skills locally that we need to fill the tens of thousands of jobs we create every year, we simply must have a skilled migrant policy. We cannot magic up several thousand IT workers a year, nor engineers, architects, draftsmen, tradesmen, auditors, teachers, nurses, radiographers – the list is endless. 

No one then who was planning on moving to New Zealand in 2022 who has consulted with us should in my opinion have anything to fear. If anything this week’s announcement clears your pathway and while change will come in 2022 I am confident in that general advice. My ear is close enough to the ground that I'll put my reputation on the line and say anyone that IMMagine currently represents or chooses to represent over the next few months is still going to have a viable pathway to residency even if they are currently overseas.

It has been wonderful to be able to tell several hundred families over the past few hours that they now have the certainty they have been missing since March 2020. Immigration Department managers are heaving a sigh of relief. For the politicians, they've managed now to lance a big nasty boil and relieve some of the pressure they were rightly feeling to fix the mess that they created. I fervently hope they better appreciate now that migrants are human beings and not simply reference numbers on a piece of departmental letterhead or political pawns. What we and our clients have experienced in recent years is shameful and I hope never allowed to repeat. 

Now, I have to find a way to get me and my family home! 

Until next week 

Iain MacLeod

Southern Man

 


Actions speak louder than words

Posted by Iain on July 23, 2021, 2:01 p.m. in New Zealand Politics

There’s an old saying that actions speak louder than words.

A few weeks ago the New Zealand Government announced with it must be said, muted fanfare, that the days of high levels of inward migration were over. Employers needed to get used to less access to global labour and start finding New Zealanders to fill the thousands of vacancies being advertised every week. That is, whether or not those New Zealanders wish to be found. Or work. Employers would need to train and up skill those that are here and not rely on foreigners. 

Migrant groups, those already in New Zealand and people looking to move here felt marginalised and picked on. New Zealand is increasingly being viewed as less welcoming to migrants in the markets we at IMMagine work in. While we reassure the world that much of this is simply political posturing that comes with the risk we are seen to be telling people what they want to hear and not what they need to know - something we have built our reputation on over thirty years. 

So what actions has the government taken since it announced this so called immigration 'reset'? 

A closer examination reveals something quite different to the rhetoric.

Vague in detail at the time beyond suggesting a new ‘direction of travel’ which would see fewer work visas being made available to those at the lower skills end of the spectrum the Government has taken two concrete steps since then which completely contradicts what was announced in that speech. 

Within two weeks the Government announced a blanket extension to all those in the country who hold Holiday Working Visas and Seasonal Work Visas (filling temporary and casual horticulture and agricultural roles for the most part). The sort of occupations where workers are often lower skilled and are paid at the lower end of the spectrum. Strike one. 

Last week the Government announced that essential skill work visas for those earning under the median wage will be allowed to remain in the country for two years from the current one. A doubling in the amount of time the very people the ‘reset’ speech announced we do not want any longer can remain in the country. Strike two.

Reinforcing the ‘don’t mistake politicking for reality’ message last week the Deputy Prime Minister said that the government was not talking about ‘turning immigration on its head’. Strike three.

In a classic judge-me-on-what-I-do-and-not-what-I-say these three announcements reflect a very different economic reality to the trending political narrative and migrant markets should sit up and take note. The reality is our politicians are, when it comes to immigration at least, full of hot air. 

It is a case of labour market reality smacking them in the vote chasing face. The reality is our economy is strong and expected to grow by 5.5% this year and 3.8% next, our GDP is higher than it was before we had heard of Covid, unemployment is 4.6% (and expected to continue falling) effectively meaning we cannot go much lower (given there’s a percentage of the population incapable or unwilling of working). Inflation over the past year has increased to 3.3%, the Reserve Bank has stopped its bond buying programme and has signalled interest rates will shortly have to start rising. Already some of the high street banks are moving to increase their deposit and lending rates. 

As the border restrictions continue to starve the local economy of valuable skills and labour that we simply do not have locally the Government has no choice but to encourage those it said a few weeks ago it didn’t want to stay here, to please please please stay longer! 

The reality is simple. The political hot air is not anti-migrant per se, it is about infrastructure pressure and house prices, but the government has painted itself into something of a corner. Nothing more and nothing less. We have never as a country produced all the skills we need and that in part is because who can ever know for sure what an economy will need in five, ten or twenty years time? In the meantime we equally subsidise those wishing to study sports science, marketing and law as much as we subsidise IT and Engineering despite not being short of the first group but being desperate for the second. Perhaps as a sign of the real future the Government has chucked $340 million at ‘free’ apprenticeship training but therein lies the rub. 

It takes four years to train a welder, a carpenter, an electrician. It takes 4-5 years to train an engineer, nurse or teacher. Six years a Dentist or Doctor so even if the Government was serious about some vague new ‘direction of travel’ and even if we see some sort of ‘reset’ with some actual detail (don’t hold your breath), it will take years before we can rejig our education system to encourage young people to make different career choices. There seems little appetite for increasing incentives on the young and unemployed to up skill and train (if they are capable of it). 

And can we force someone who wants to study sports science or marketing to become a Civil Engineer, Teacher or Software Developer anyway? 

At the same time with their international border largely closed in Australia to all but a relatively small number of permanent residence holding migrants, many recruiters there are now in New Zealand actively poaching staff (and vice versa) . I heard of a story a couple of weeks ago where a young software developer in New Zealand earning $85,000 had apparently been offered $200,000 to move to Australia. The New Zealand employer matched it. Good for the developer, not so good for the consumer of whatever it is that company produces. 

This week one of my own clients who had accepted (against my advice) a job two years ago paying $60,000 has just been offered $107,000 and is being interviewed for another role which will pay even more. He cannot believe how many companies want to interview him and what they are willing to pay.

So, our Government can starve employers of the low, medium and highly skilled as it is doing now through not processing offshore based visa applicants but that doesn’t help employers fill vacancies as the more highly skilled locals play musical chairs for more money. 

Once international travel resumes and our population is largely vaccinated (by the end of the year apparently) we are going to be vulnerable to our own skilled workforce heading overseas again for adventure, global experience, opportunity or more money. We simply have to replace them and that is where our Government’s words will not be matched with its action - because it cannot afford to. 

That inflation is now the highest it has been since the GFC bounce back is in part being fuelled by salaries increasing. Australia represents a clear and present danger in terms of attracting people to move over there for more money. They too are desperate with a strong economy and low unemployment. 

We are in a global competition for skills and pay packets must reflect that as part of the solution to attracting and retaining talent. 

So next time you hear any Minister of Immigration or Economic Development or even the Prime Minister herself making noises about restricting immigration, cutting numbers and making life more difficult for migrants to get into or remain in New Zealand, judge them on what they do, not what they say.

Believe me it will be a different story.

Until next week


What is it About Politicians?

Posted by Iain on March 2, 2018, 7:56 p.m. in New Zealand Politics

If you think New Zealand is different to where you come from - it is. Sometimes for the better and sometimes not. This week's blog is an example of how we are the same, or at least that we are stupid enough to elect the same sort of people...

I know it’s a stupid question but why do Politicians make promises they know they cannot deliver? We now have the President of South Africa confirming a new policy of land confiscation without compensation. At least, that was the headline. The small print suggested that they might, maybe, some land, some time. The political message was sent to the supporters of the ANC and those more radical that the government intends redistributing land but knowing that would be tantamount to economic suicide and most voters don’t read the fine print, a second, less headline grabbing message was sent to the world of don’t sweat it, we aren’t planning on becoming Zimbabwe.

Can they deliver both? 

Although thankfully nothing in NZ is ever as radical as land confiscation, we have the bizarre situation in New Zealand with our mixed-member proportional representation system whereby the party that received the greatest number of votes in the election late last year with 44% does not form part of the current Government.  in the last weeks before the election the parties in Parliament were polling something like National 46%, Labour 32%, Green Party 8%, New Zealand First 7% and a few others on less than 5% (in New Zealand if you don’t win a constituency seat you must get 5% of the vote to return to Parliament). On election night the polls more or less reflected those numbers with the four big parties splitting the votes pretty much as predicted.

What no one imagined would happen was that the three ‘losing’ parties (legitimately) got together and said none want to work with the biggest and formed their own government. Nothing wrong with that — in the end it is all about getting to 50% and they did it.

My problem is less with the outcome, however bizarre and unexpected, as what those three smaller parties did to attract votes.

All were making all sorts of wild promises of what they would do if they were part of the next Government.

This included, among other things, “slashing immigration” by up to 80% (NZ First), cutting immigration by between 20,000 and 30 000 people (Labour, traditionally very pro-immigration), a promise to build 100,000 “affordable” houses within 10 years (Labour) along with a promise to provide free university education initially in year 1 from 2018. 

Although in a mixed-member proportional representation system any party can shack up with any other, it was incomprehensible to most voters that the National Party, receiving 44%, would not be part of the next Government.  

While I’m sure the three ‘losers’ were very happy, they made such outlandish promises to try and increase their votes, all those pigeons are now coming back to roost and there are lots of pigeons and a lot of pigeon poop.

Anybody with more than three brain cells would have known that any promise to build 100,000 affordable houses across the country within 10 years, and 50,000 of those in Auckland, was either deluded or a liar.  We’ve had a skill shortage in construction-related trades and other occupations (such as Architecture, Civil Engineers, QSs and so on) for many years and we still have a housing stock deficit so how could you promise, with a straight face, to build all these houses over that time frame while at the same time slashing immigration numbers?

We have now had virtually 9 years of unbroken growth, record rates of net migration and an economy which is 25% bigger today than it was nine years’ ago. It was widely estimated that we were at least 20,000 skilled workers short before the election yet those other political parties promised to build all these houses while at the same time cutting back on immigrants. That clearly isn’t going to happen (see previous update) and it’s interesting that Auckland house price values have begun their upward trajectory again, after taking a brief respite around the time of the election.

It has also now been revealed that within two years New Zealand is going to be 3,000 Teachers short of what will be required to cope with population growth and retiring Teachers. Teacher trainee numbers are down 40% on five years ago and continue to trend down. None of this should be news to any politician because the workforce is known to be ageing, Teachers retire and of course, there is a degree of churn as well.

It is a problem that was not hard to identify.

The new Government recently had the chance to put this critical skill back on the Long Term Skills Shortage List that was just updated but chose not to. Being on that list might have attracted a few more Teachers to these shores as they some could potentially secure residence without needing a job first — although every good, fluent English speaking teacher should qualify for residence if they can get registered here, there are still many that won’t come without residence first. When political parties campaigned on cutting/slashing immigration numbers one of your first moves could never be to encourage certain occupations to move here or you’ll look like idiots or liars. 

To be fair, part of the problem that the Government inherited a situation where Teachers’ salaries have not kept up with salaries in other sectors. The most a Teacher can earn in New Zealand in the public system is NZ$ 71,000.00 per annum or thereabouts which if you are outside of Auckland is not a bad income at all and is indeed liveable, even for a single person.  In Auckland however, a graduate and single Teacher who begins on around $50,000.00 is going to struggle if they have aspirations for home ownership for example. If a Teacher is married and there is a second income coming in, then Auckland becomes a very viable option for those Teachers, young or old.

I should add that there are other allowances which Teachers can be paid if, for example, they take on management-level responsibilities and we have one client from South Africa currently in New Zealand working as a Teacher earning around NZ$ 95,00.00.  She is definitely the exception and the school has pulled out all the stops to ensure it was worth her while to stay.

The previous Government did put in place a relocation allowance, paid retrospectively to foreign teachers or kiwi teachers returning home of $5000. Too little, too late.

Earlier this week the Minister of Education said the Government doesn’t have an “inexhaustible bucket of money” to pay Teachers more! Could have fooled me.

You seem to have promised billions of dollars not yet in the nation’s bank account for everything else!

We now have the first year of tertiary education being free, which has cost the good folk of NZ NZ$2 billion this year alone. The cobbled together Government seem to have the money for that but in terms of needs and wants, that was a well intentioned but cynical promise to attract younger voters, no more and no less. While we might all like University to be free, they could probably double Teachers’ salaries and still have NZ$1.5 billion left over for the greater subsidisation of tertiary education than the 75% we currently do.

But no, they made a ‘promise'.

We will now also see confirmation of the lies that were told about slashing immigration.  The Deputy Prime Minister, whose party attracted around 7% of the popular vote and who every 3 years stands on a platform of cutting immigration by 80%, once again managed to convince a minority of (pretty stupid) people that this time round he wasn’t telling bald-faced lies. 

The three party Government has run with the Labour Party’s election manifesto which is to cut 20,000 – 30,000 International Students from coming to New Zealand each year.  No talk of cutting skilled migrant quotas or investors or Parents, only international students as I have written about before. 

A Treasury Report out this week indicated that decision will remove from the economy at least NZ$260 million per annum and probably a lot more.  Many of those students had work rights, i.e., they could work up to 20 per hours per week, so they were filling many of those lower-skilled casual jobs that we simply do not have enough people here to fill, especially in retail, hospitality, agriculture and horticulture.  So not only has this “cut” had a direct impact on the nation’s income but even more than that, we have got around 10,000 fewer people per year in the country available to local employers to fill roles that, as I say, there aren’t enough New Zealander to fill. 

We have a very charismatic and I have no doubt, very nice, young Prime Minister that many people have taken a shine to. The first 100 days of this new Government has seen any number of reviews and enquiries launched (I always wonder what these Politicians do while they sit in opposition for 9 years in terms of planning and research) and I suspect within the next 12 months they’re going to regret an awful lot of the hollow promises they made that if they had any integrity, they would admit they were never going to be able to deliver.

But, sigh, that isn’t how politics works in any multi party democracy.

I’m not sure if (NZ) voters will ever learn but I note with a degree of relish that NZ First, the party that polled a pretty miserable 7% on election night but still effectively chose our current government (and their Leader appointed himself Deputy PM) is today polling 3.5% — not enough to get back into parliament. 

I’d hazard a guess half those that voted for this party expected they’d enter into coalition with the National Party and are showing their displeasure ‘if an election was held today'. One can only hope that they remember that in 2020 when the election circus comes to town once again. 

Perhaps the lies and half truths Politicians tell are not forgotten by all of the people all of the time.

Until next week...

Iain MacLeod, Southern Man


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Watch Out, Immigrants - It's Election Time

Posted by Iain on June 15, 2017, 5:10 p.m. in New Zealand Politics

This week the major opposition party, Labour, released their immigration policy.

I can only hope that this set of politicians understand a lot more about economics, health and education than they appear to know about immigration or they clearly take the voting public for fools.

Having promised in recent months to ‘slash migration numbers by tens of thousands’ what did they actually ‘slash’ in terms of the current resident visa targets?

Zero. Nada. Nothing.

Why?

They aren’t complete idiots. They know we have a skills mismatch between the jobs being created and the skills we are creating locally – in a nutshell, we simply do not produce enough teachers, IT specialists, engineers, tradies and construction related workers among many other occupations to meet demand. So how do we find them?

Immigrants.

They haven’t touched the Investor category which is odd for a party of the workers who seem to think people get rich by waking up in the morning.

Their focus has been to suggest they are going to slash migrant workers.

What have they promised?

  • Removing work rights and work visas at the end of their study for any international student that comes here to complete anything less than a Bachelor degree
  • Created a pathway for 5000 construction workers 
  • Created some as yet undefined ‘Exceptional Skills visas for 1000 people

That’s it.

The only problem with that plan is that the current Government has already raised the bar on which level of course international students should do to secure graduate work visas at the end of their study. This announcement takes things a small step further but the message has already been received by the international student market. As a result, over the past year the number of international students coming to study here has already taken a dive, particularly from India (the greatest source of these students). So, Labour’s promise is one already being acted upon by the current government.

The new constructions worker visa is an admission that we do not create enough of these skills locally which is quite true. It is designed to complement another ridiculous promise made by this party which is to build 100,000 houses over ten years. We are in the middle of the biggest building boom since WWII and we could still only build 6,000 houses last year in Auckland and that’s the private sector at work, not bumbling public servants trying to organise it.

I always asked who do these politicians plan will do the building if they want to build 10,000 houses a year. If you need anything major done on your house today (as I do),  you wait months for carpenters, electricians, plumbers......so we need a lot more of these types of migrants, not less.

There is another reason why this new policy will fall flat on its face. The Labour Party has a fish hook - albeit well intentioned - for every construction worker a company is given permission to hire from overseas, they must employ a local apprentice. I applaud the sentiment.

Can they explain where these apprentices will come from? Today, Government subsidises the training of apprentices and we still don’t have enough young people willing to take up a large percentage of the training opportunities already in place. Recent stats show that 74% of them never complete their training. Yet construction related workers in particular can expect to earn between $60,000 - $80,000 a year on average. Outside of Auckland (or with a partner who is also working in Auckland) this is not bad money after 3-4 years of training.

Please tell us Labour Party, what’s the plan to get these young unmotivated men and women off their couches, away from their Playstations and out into training? Carrot or stick? We know that the carrot of upskilling and meaningful work has not worked in areas like Northland and the East Cape where youth unemployment runs as high as 25%. Plenty of apprenticeships for them in those parts if they want them...and we do have a good national bus system if they wanted to move to another city where these opportunities abound.

Just as I called out the Government with their recent self-proclaimed ‘toughening up’ and ‘raising the bar’ skilled migrant changes of a few weeks ago that also simply do not stand up to scrutiny, I am interested to learn if we can expect both the major parties - which between them can expect around 65% of the popular vote come September - to shortly release some form of social welfare reform policies?

Once, when we had people who wanted to work but there were no jobs for them, there was not much the politicians could do. Not anymore. Through this year and the next two the Government’s officials are predicting another 150,000 jobs being created in this country. Over the past five years several hundred thousand new jobs have been created.

We need immigrants because we often don’t have the skills locally to fill so many of these jobs.

Which is exactly why with both major parties are promising getting tough and raising the bar and one promising this week to ‘slash’ migrant numbers – neither actually has any intention of doing so.

What both have done is to recognise the ‘tsunami’ of international students looking for residence that some of us were warning the Government about two years ago which has been addressed – by the National Party government. Who should get no praise for fixing a problem they created...

What is clear is numbers of students coming here is falling and the smart ones will choose courses at a higher level that will lead to helping us to alleviate skills gaps, but any way you slice it, that will translate into fewer people chasing those 27,000 skilled migrant places each year.

Those of you living here who might be about to vote for the first time and who might think either party is seriously contemplating cutting skilled migrant numbers, both parties have now released their policies and both have confirmed, in effect: neither want to cut a single visa from their residence programmes.

Given we so badly need so many skills, why would these politicians do anything but give the appearance of 'slashing numbers' gibven they know full well we need every skilled migrant we can lay our hands on?

Until next week.

Iain MacLeod

Southern Man


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